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To be a little more precise: I make video games, edit Wikipedia, and write here on LessWrong!

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This sounds really awesome, and I just applied! If you don’t mind me asking, what percentage of applicants do you expect to accept?

You are correct in that I was not explicitly saying that LessWrong is vulnerable to this (except for the fact that this assumption hasn't really been pushed back on until nowish), but to be honest I do expect some percentage of LessWrong folks to end up believing this regardless of evidence. That's not really a critique against the community as a whole though, because in any group, no matter how forward-thinking, you'll find people who don't adjust much based on evidence contrary to their beliefs.

I'm pretty sure the tweet I saw was something similar to this. Would be happy to have this disproven as a hoax or something of course...

For me, having listened to the guy talk is even stronger evidence since I think I'd notice it if he was lying, but that's obviously not verifiable.

Going to quote from Astrid Wilde here (original source linked in post):

i felt this way about someone once too. in 2015 that person kidnapped me, trafficked me, and blackmailed me out of my life savings at the time of ~$45,000. i spent the next 3 years homeless.

sociopathic charisma is something i never would have believed in if i hadn't experienced it first hand. but there really are people out there who spend their entire lives honing their social intelligence to gain wealth, power, and status.

most of them just don't have enough smart but naive people around them to fake competency and reputation launder at scale. EA was the perfect political philosophy and community for this to scale....

I would really very strongly recommend not updating on an intuitive feeling of "I can trust this guy," considering that in the counterfactual case (where you could not in fact, trust the guy), you would be equally likely to have that exact feeling!

As for SBF being vegan as evidence, see my reply to you on the EA forum.

One would think—unfortunately we humans are really bad at judging our own ability to judge the trustworthiness of other people, even when we know about said bais. If you hire a friend or trusted community leader to do a high-stakes job, many people won't even bother with an NDA, let alone do any formal investigation into their honesty! Hopefully this will serve as a lesson that won't have to be repeated...

I don't think people realise how much astronomically more likely it is to truthfully be told "God created this paradise for you and your enormous circle of friends to reward an alien for giving him his wallet with zero valid reasoning whatsoever" than to be truthfully asked by that same Deity for your stuff in exchange for the distant unobservable happiness of countless strangers.

Why is this? I'm not immediately seeing why this is necessarily the case.

There absolutely should be if there isn't already. Would love to work with an actual mathematician on this....

yeah, I suspect the largest bottleneck there is that trying to destroy the world is so strongly against human values that there are ~0 people (who aren't severely mentally ill) who are genuinely trying to do that.

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