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I initially dismissed Orthogonal due to a guess that their worldview was too similar to MIRI's, and that they would give up or reach a dead end for reasons similar to why MIRI hasn't made much progress.

Then the gears to ascension prodded me to take a closer look.

Now that I've read their more important posts, I'm more confused.

I still think Orthogonal has a pretty low chance of making a difference, but there's enough that's unique about their ideas to be worth pursuing. I've donated $15k to Orthogonal.

Eliminating the profit motive would likely mean that militaries develop dangerous AI a few years later.

I'm guessing that most people's main reason is that it looks easier to ban AI research than to sufficiently reduce the profit motive.

The belief in a universal, independent standard for altruism, morality, and right and wrong is deeply ingrained in societal norms.

That's true of the norms in WEIRD cultures. It is far from universal.

I expect such acausal collaboration to be harder to develop than good calibration, and therefore less likely to happen at the stage I have in mind.

the people choosing this many white cars seem low-level insane

The increase in white cars seems to follow a 2007 study An Investigation into the Relationship between Vehicle Colour and Crash Risk which says light-colored cars are safer. Maybe it's just a coincidence.

I disagree. The macro environment is good enough that the Fed could easily handle any contraction, provided they focus on forward looking indicators, such as the TIPS spread, or near-realtime indicators such as the ISM purchasing manager numbers.

Now seems like a good time for the Fed to start decreasing interest rates.

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