I initially dismissed Orthogonal due to a guess that their worldview was too similar to MIRI's, and that they would give up or reach a dead end for reasons similar to why MIRI hasn't made much progress.
Then the gears to ascension prodded me to take a closer look.
Now that I've read their more important posts, I'm more confused.
I still think Orthogonal has a pretty low chance of making a difference, but there's enough that's unique about their ideas to be worth pursuing. I've donated $15k to Orthogonal.
Eliminating the profit motive would likely mean that militaries develop dangerous AI a few years later.
I'm guessing that most people's main reason is that it looks easier to ban AI research than to sufficiently reduce the profit motive.
The belief in a universal, independent standard for altruism, morality, and right and wrong is deeply ingrained in societal norms.
That's true of the norms in WEIRD cultures. It is far from universal.
I expect such acausal collaboration to be harder to develop than good calibration, and therefore less likely to happen at the stage I have in mind.
the people choosing this many white cars seem low-level insane
The increase in white cars seems to follow a 2007 study An Investigation into the Relationship between Vehicle Colour and Crash Risk which says light-colored cars are safer. Maybe it's just a coincidence.
I disagree. The macro environment is good enough that the Fed could easily handle any contraction, provided they focus on forward looking indicators, such as the TIPS spread, or near-realtime indicators such as the ISM purchasing manager numbers.
Now seems like a good time for the Fed to start decreasing interest rates.
Freitas' paper on ecophagy has a good analysis of these issues.