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Many of the calculations on the brain capacity are based on wrong assumptions. Is there an original source for that 2.5 PB calculation? This video is very relevant to the topic if you have some time to check it out:


Same I would do in Slack! I simply have some work groups in Discord, that's why

Great! Can you make that, if I input P for hypothesis A, 1 - P appears automatically for Hypothesis B?

This should be curated. Just reading this list is a good exercise for those people that attribute a very high probability to a single possible scenario.

I don't see why Jaynes is wrong. I guess it depends on the interpretation? If two humans are chasing the same thing there is a limited amount of it, of course they are in conflict with each other. Isn't that what Jaynes is pointing at?

Good post, I hope to read more from you

Yeah, sorry about that. I didn't put much effort into my last comment.

Defining intelligence is tricky, but to paraphrase EY, it's probably wise not to get too specific since we don't fully understand Intelligence yet. In the past, people didn't really know what fire was. Some would just point to it and say, "Hey, it's that shiny thing that burns you." Others would invent complex, intellectual-sounding theories about phlogiston, which were entirely off base. Similarly, I don't think the discussion about AGI and doom scenarios gets much benefit from a super precise definition of intelligence. A broad definition that most people agree on should be enough, like "Intelligence is the capacity to create models of the world and use them to think."

But I do think we should aim for a clearer definition of AGI (yes, I realize 'Intelligence' is part of the acronym). What I mean is, we could have a more vague definition of intelligence, but AGI should be better defined. I've noticed different uses of 'AGI' here on Less Wrong. One definition is a machine that can reason about a wide variety of problems (some of which may be new to it) and learn new things.  Under this definition, GPT4 is pretty much an AGI. Another common definition on this forum is an AGI is a machine capable of wiping out all humans. I believe we need to separate these two definitions, as that's really where the core of the crux lies.

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