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I don't think that "users active on the site on Petrov day", nor "users who visited the homepage on Petrov day" are good metrics; someone who didn't want to press the button would have no reason to visit the site, and they might have not done so either naturally (because they don't check LW daily) or artificially (because they didn't want to be tempted or didn't want to engage with the exercise.) I expect there are a lot of users who simply don't care about Petrov day, and I think they should still be included in the set of "people who chose not to press the button".

What about "users who viewed the Petrov day announcement article or visited the homepage"? That should more accurately capture the set of users who were aware of their ability to nuke the homepage and chose not to do so. (It still misses anyone who found out via social media, Manifold, etc., but there's not much you can do about that.)

Something like that would be much more representative of real defection risks. It's easy to cooperate with people we like; the hard part is cooperating with the outgroup.

(Good luck getting /r/sneerclub to agree to this though, since that itself would require cooperation.)

It's difficult to incentivize people to not press the button, but here's an attempt: If we successfully get through Petrov day without anyone pressing the button (other than the person who has already done so via the bug), I will donate $50 to a charity selected by majority vote.

These are much more creative than mine, good job. I especially liked 8, 12, 27, and 29.

fast plane and steer up
rocket ship
throw it really hard
extremely light balloon
wait for an upwards gust of wind
tall skyscraper
space elevator
earthquake energy storage
really big tsunami
asteroid impact launch
wait for the sun to engulf both
increase mass of earth enough to make moon crash
elevator pulley system with counterweight
superman
rename earth to "the moon"
take it to a moon replica on earth
touch it to a moon rock on earth
really big air rifle
wait for tectonic drift to make a big enough mountain
teleporter
point a particle accelerator upwards
attach to passing neutrino
solar sail
nuclear pulse propulsion
hack the universe
magic
hit it really hard with a golf club
drop a heavy weight on a see-saw
attach to dolphin leaping
high buoyancy object in deep ocean
put on top of erupting volcano
diet coke and mentos
drone
nuclear meltdown
turn a continent sideways
project an image of it onto the moon
build a large sand pile
coordinate an inverse droplet ring wave
throw it with one of those dog ball launchers
mail it
attach to next NASA mission
wait for the big crunch
large lasso
system of ropes in orbit
death star
miniaturize and inject into that lizard that shoots blood out of its eye, but mutated so it can shoot blood to the moon
insult it so much it leaves the planet
attach to Japanese paper balloon
that thing the asgardians use to travel between planets
inverse parachute
turn off gravity
use negative mass

There's an experiment — insert obligatory replication crisis disclaimer — where one participant is told to gently poke another participant. The second participant is told to poke the first participant the same amount the first person poked them.

It turns out people tend to poke back slightly harder than they were first poked.

Repeat.

A few iterations later, they are striking each other really hard.

Do you know where I could read this study? I was unable to find it online with keywords like "poking", "escalation", etc.

A cognitive system with sufficiently high cognitive powers, given any medium-bandwidth channel of causal influence, will not find it difficult to bootstrap to overpowering capabilities independent of human infrastructure.

I don't find the argument you provide for this point at all compelling; your example mechanism relies entirely on human infrastructure! Stick an AGI with a visual and audio display in the middle of the wilderness with no humans around and I wouldn't expect it to be able to do anything meaningful with the animals that wander by before it breaks down. Let alone interstellar space.

Ah, so mortality almost always trends downwards except when it jumps species, at which point there can be a discontinuous jump upwards. That makes sense, thank you.

Why is it assumed that diseases evolve towards lower mortality? Every new disease is an evolved form of an old disease, so if that trend were true we'd expect no disease to ever have noticeable mortality.

Judging by a quick look at Twitter, this is going to be politically polarized right off the bat, with large swaths of the population immediately refusing vaccines or NPIs. So I think whether this turns into a serious pandemic is going to depend largely on the infectiousness of Monkeypox and not all that much else.

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