Wiki Contributions


On SBF, I think a large part of the issue is that he was working in an industry called cryptocurrency that is basically has fraud as the bedrock of it all. There was nothing real about crypto, so the collapse of FTX was basically inevitable.

I don't deny that the cryptocurrency "industry" has been a huge magnet for fraud, nor that there are structural reasons for that, but "there was nothing real about crypto" is plainly false. The desire to have currencies that can't easily be controlled, manipulated, or implicitly taxed (seigniorage, inflation) by governments or other centralized organizations and that can be transferred without physical presence is real. So is the desire for self-executing contracts. One might believe those to be harmful abilities that humanity would be better off without, but not that they're just nothing.

Thank you for writing these! They've been practically my only source of "news" for most of the time you've been writing them, and before that I mostly just ignored "news" entirely because I found it too toxic and it was too difficult+distasteful to attempt to decode it into something useful. COVID the disease hasn't directly had a huge effect on my life, and COVID the social phenomenon has been on a significant decline for some time now, but your writing about it (and the inclusion of especially notable non-COVID topics) have easily kept me interested enough to keep reading. Please consider continuing some kind of post on a weekly cadence. I think it's a really good frequency to never lose touch but also not be too burdensome (to the reader or the writer).

I don't know how far a model trained explicitly on only terminal output could go, but it makes sense that it might be a lot farther than a model trained on all the text on the internet (some small fraction of which happens to be terminal output). Although I also would have thought GPT's architecture, with a fixed context window and a fixed number of layers and tokenization that isn't at all optimized for the task, would pay large efficiency penalties at terminal emulation and would be far less impressive at it than it is at other tasks.

Assuming it does work, could we get a self-operating terminal by training another GPT to roleplay the entering commands part? Probably. I'm not sure we should though...

Sure, I understood that's what was being claimed. Roleplaying a Linux VM without error seemed extremely demanding relative to other things I knew LLMs could do, such that it was hard for me not to question whether the whole thing was just made up.

Thanks! This is much more what I expected. Things that look generally like outputs that commands might produce, and with some mind-blowing correct outputs (e.g. the effect of tr on the source code) but also some wrong outputs (e.g. the section after echo A >a; echo X >b; echo T >c; echo H >d; the output being consistent between cat a a c b d d and cat a a c b d d | sort (but inconsistent with the "actual contents" of the files) is especially the kind of error I'd expect an LLM to make).

Got it. This post also doesn't appear to actually be part of that sequence though? I would have noticed if it was and looked at the sequence page.

EDIT: Oh, I guess it's not your sequence.

EDIT2: If you just included "Alignment Stream of Thought" as part of the link text in your intro where you do already link to the sequence, that would work.


What do you mean by this acronym?  I'm not aware of its being in use on LW, you don't define it, and to me it very definitely (capitalization and all) means Armin van Buuren's weekly radio show A State of Trance.

Counterpoint #2a: A misaligned AGI whose capabilities are high enough to use our safety plans against us will succeed with an equal probability (e.g., close to 100%), if necessary by accessing these plans whether or not they were posted to the Internet.

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