Exposure or Contacts?

This is a great point: it looks like peak infectiousness is quite short-lived (~2d?), so even if someone does have a contacts model they should be counting person A this week and person A last week as separate contacts.

Food Spending During Covid

I don't think we're stocking up more now than we were before: we already had an approach of stocking up non-perishables pretty substantially, and while we ran our stocks down a bit in the first couple months of the lockdown we've since replenished back to approximately where we were.

I'm quite surprised that you've found making bread and ginger beer at home to be more expensive than buying them. Bread, for example, is essentially flour, water, yeast, and salt. That should come to 30¢-70¢/lb, depending on how cheaply you can get flour, while commercially produced bread is typically twice that.

The US Already Has A Wealth Tax

If everyone knew that this was how things worked, then in raising money from investors the startup founders would put aside a small amount of the investment round to pay wealth taxes. VCs would not object, because unlike a startup founder pulling a massive salary, this isn't any sort of bad sign.

The US Already Has A Wealth Tax

The situation is not that inflation makes your savings less valuable, it is that your non-dollar assets become nominally more valuable partly due to inflation, and that nominal-only gain is taxed.

Say you bought a famous painting for $10 million in 1990 money, and sold it for $20 million in 2020 money. The IRS sees (and taxes) a gain of $10 million, but actually your painting didn't gain at all: dollars just became less valuable.

Spending Update 2020

Two: about 1/5 partner, 4/5 me.

I'm reasonably happy with how we're spending our money, though probably my biggest goal is to allocate our donations better.

Covid 8/13: Same As It Ever Was

As far as I can tell, the risk of Covid-19 for a college student is trivial compared to the risks of playing football normally.

I would find that more persuasive if I didn't think that "the risks of playing football normally" were already much too high

Effect of Numpy

The amount of latency, even in an extremely efficient implementation, will be high enough to keep that approach from working. Unless everyone has a very low latency audio setup (roughly the default on macs, somewhat difficult elsewhere, impossible on Android), a wired internet connection, and relatively low physical distance, you just can't get low enough latency to keep everything feeling simultaneous. A good target there is about 30ms.

The goal with this project is to make something feel like group singing, even though people are not actually singing at the exact same time as each other.

Negative "eeny meeny miny moe"

As much as I would like to claim to be very insightful, I was mostly just thinking about how the children's game works. Sorry!

Effect of Numpy

sends everyone the results

I think that's where you're imagining this differently than I am. In the approach I am describing, everything is real time. The only time you hear some thing is when you were singing along to it. You never hear a version of the audio includes your own voice, and includes the voices of anyone after you in the chain. The goal is not to create something and everyone listen back to it, the goal is to sing together in the moment.

Effect of Numpy

Why are you putting your six singers into two groups of three? The ideal, from the perspective of everyone hearing as many people as possible, is to order your singers a, b, c, d, e, f. Each person hears the audio from those ahead of them. If you have really very large numbers of people, such that arranging them in a full chain gives an end to end latency that is too high, then you can use some sort of chain of groups, for example a, b + c, d + e, f + g.

If you have any sort of chain that is reasonably long, then you want to be resilient to losing a link. That's much easier to do when you have a server that everyone is sending and receiving audio from. Our current design can recover smoothly from someone having a network hiccup because all that happens is you lose a bit of audio data and then resume. Key to this is that people downstream from the one having a network problem don't have their audio interrupted, beyond losing audio from the person who is no longer connected.

In theory a peer to peer approach could offer slightly lower latency, but I expect the game there is minimal. Sending a packet from a to b, versus sending a packet from a to a high-connectivity well-placed central server to b, isn't actually that different.

With the FFT, I think you may be effectively reinventing lossy audio compression? I think we'll likely get much better results using opus or another modern codec.

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