All of dkirmani's Comments + Replies
you can get these principles in other ways
I got them via cultural immersion. I just lurked here for several months while my brain adapted to how the people here think. Lurk moar!
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Is it a bug that I can see this post? I got alerted because it was tagged "GPT".
Even if only a single person's values are extrapolated, I think things would still be basically fine. While power corrupts, it takes time do so. Value lock-in at the moment of creation of the AI prevents it from tracking (what would be the) power-warped values of its creator.
My best guess is that there are useful things for 500 MLEs to work on, but publicly specifying these things is a bad move.
Here's an idea for a decision procedure:
- Narrow it down to a shortlist of 2-20 video ideas that you like
- For each video, create a conditional prediction market on Manifold with the resolution criterion "if made, would this video get over X views/likes/hours of watch-time", for some constant threshold X
- Make the video the market likes the most
- Resolve the appropriate market
[copying the reply here because I don't like looking at the facebook popup]
(I usually do agree with Scott Alexander on almost everything, so it's only when he says something I particularly disagree with that I ever bother to broadcast it. Don't let that selection bias give you a misleading picture of our degree of general agreement. #long)
I think Scott Alexander is wrong that we should regret our collective failure to invest early in cryptocurrency. This is very low on my list of things to kick ourselves about. I do not consider it one of my life's regrets...
Yes. From the same comment:
Spend a lot of money on ad campaigns and lobbying, and get {New Hampshire/Nevada/Wyoming/Florida} to nullify whatever federal anti-gambling laws exist, and carve out a safe haven for a serious prediction market (which does not currently exist).
And:
...You could alternatively just fund the development of a serious prediction market on the Ethereum blockchain, but I'm not as sure about this path, as the gains one could get might be considered "illegal". Also, a fully legalized prediction market could rely on courts to arbitrate m
Agreed. To quote myself like some kind of asshole:
In order for a prediction market to be "serious", it has to allow epistemically rational people to get very very rich (in fiat currency) without going to jail, and it has to allow anyone to create and arbitrate a binary prediction market for a small fee. Such a platform does not currently exist.
Thanks!
might be able to find a better voice synthesizer that can be a bit more engaging (not sure if TikTok supplies this)
Don't think I can do this that easily. I'm currently calling Amazon Polly, AWS' TTS service, from a python script I wrote to render these videos. Tiktok does supply an (imo) annoying-sounding female TTS voice, but that's off the table since I would have to enter all the text manually on my phone.
experimentation is king.
I could use Amazon's Mechanical Turk to run low-cost focus groups.
The "anti-zoomer" sentiment is partially "anti-my-younger-self" sentiment. I, personally, had to expend a good deal of effort to improve my attention span, wean myself off of social media, and reclaim whole hours of my day. I'm frustrated because I know that more is possible.
I fail to see how this is an indictment of your friend's character, or an indication that he is incapable of reading.
That friend did, in fact, try multiple times to read books. He got distracted every time. He wanted to be the kind of guy that could finish books, but he couldn't. I...
(creating a separate thread for this, because I think it's separate from my other reply)
That friend did, in fact, try multiple times to read books. He got distracted every time. He wanted to be the kind of guy that could finish books, but he couldn’t.
You've described the problem exactly. Your friend didn't have a clear reason to read books. He just had this vague notion that reading books was "good". That "smart people" read lots of books. Why? Who knows, they just do.
I read a lot. But I have never read just for the sake of reading. All of my reading h...
Further evidence that I should write a factpost investigating whether attention spans have been declining.
Thank you for the feedback! I didn't consider the inherent jumpiness/grabbiness of Subway Surfers, but you're right, something more continuous is preferable. (edit: but isn't the point of the audio to allow your eyes to stray? hmm)
I will probably also take your advice wrt using the Highlights and CFAR handbook excerpts in lieu of the entire remainder of R:AZ.
distillation of Taleb's core idea:
expected value estimates are dominated by tail events (unless the distribution is thin-tailed)
repeated sampling from a distribution usually does not yield information about tail events
therefore repeated sampling can be used to estimate EVs iff the distribution is thin-tailed according to your priors
if the distribution is fat-tailed according to your priors, how to determine EV?
estimating EV is much harder
some will say to use the sample mean as EV anyway, they are wrong
in the absence of information on tail events (which is ...
If you can't see why a single modern society locking in their current values would be a tragedy of enormous proportions, imagine an ancient civilization such as the Romans locking in their specific morals 2000 years ago. Moral progress is real, and important.
That wouldn't be a tragedy if I were a Roman.
...Meanwhile, Adderall works for people whether they “have” “ADHD” or not. It may work better for people with ADHD – a lot of them report an almost “magical” effect – but it works at least a little for most people. There is a vast literature trying to disprove this. Its main strategy is to show Adderall doesn’t enhance cognition in healthy people. Fine. But mostly it doesn’t enhance cognition in people with ADHD either. People aren’t using Adderall to get smart, they’re using it to focus. From Prescription stimulants in individuals with and without attention
Set up two bitcoin wallets, transfer funds from one to the other, and put your hash in the message field.
The bitcoin blockchain is both immutable and public, making it an ideal medium for sealed predictions. While the LW servers might be compromised, there are game-theoretic guarantees that the blockchain won't be.
Much of why my priors say that the e/acc thing is organic is just my gestalt impression of being on Twitter while it was happening. Unfortunately, that's not a legible source of evidence to people-who-aren't-me. I'll tell you what information I do remember, though:
- "Bitalik Vuterin" does not ring a bell, I don't think he was a very consequential figure to begin with.
- @BasedBeffJezos claims to be the same person as @BasedBeff, and claims that he was locked out of his @BasedBeff account on 2022-08-08 due to "misinformation", which he attributes to "blue che
I'm Twitter mutuals with some of these e/acc people. I think that its founders and most (if not all) of its proponents are organic accounts, but it still might be a good idea to not signal-boost them.
I've also read that the definition of "high-dimensional" is relative to the number of data points you have in your dataset, such that "high-d" means dims is greater[1] than n, "low-d" means n is greater[1:1] than dims, and "medium-d" means the two are of similar magnitude.
However, this would mean that much of modern machine learning is done on "low-dimensional" data, which is absurd.
There are about 2 to 5 steps, each with a due diligence procedure, in order to manipulate reality in any way with crypto, or even to transfer from a “niche” crypto it a more widely-used one such as ETH.
Nitpick: with Uniswap (or another DEX), you can convert your niche crypto to ETH without a due diligence/KYC check.
I argue that all organisms suffer from rot. There is thermodynamic lower bound on rot. The larger & more complex the organism is the more rot. I argue that biological life solves this fundamental problem by a bounded-error lifecycle strategy.
The germline doesn't rot, though. Human egg and sperm-producing cells must maintain (epi-)genomic integrity indefinitely.
Agreed. Maybe the blocker here is that LW/EA people don't have many contacts in public policy, and are much more familiar with tech.
Even more obviously, why do aliens adhere to the IEEE 754 standard? My interpretation is that the cryptanalyst from the post has indeed been pranked by their friend at NASA.
How much gain do you think is actually available for someone who is still limited by human tissue brain performance and just uses the best available consistently winning method?
Quite a bit.
Has anyone tried a five-dimensional representation instead of a two-dimensional one? 2095 isn't divisible by 2 or by 3, but it is divisible by 5. Maybe our "aliens" have four spatial dimensions and one temporal.
Now that I know that, I've updated towards the "float64" area of hypothesis space. But in defense of the "cellular automaton" hypotheses, just look at the bitmap! Ordered initial conditions evolving into (spatially-clumped) chaos, with at least one lateral border exhibiting repetitive behavior:
I'm trying to figure out why the left hand side of the full picture has a binary 01010101
Yeah, I originally uploaded this version by accident, which is the same as the above image, but the lines that go [0,0,0, .... ,0,1,0] are so common that I removed them and represented them as a single bit on the left.
Alternative hypothesis: The first several bits (of each 64-bit chunk) are less chaotic than the middle bits due to repetitive border behavior of a 1-D cellular automaton. This hypothesis also accounts for the observation that the final seven bits of each chunk are always either 1000000 or 0111111.
If you were instead removing the last n bits from each chunk, you'd find another clear phase transition at n=7, as the last seven bits only have two observed configurations.
Advertisements on Lesswrong (like lsusr's now-deleted "Want To Hire Me?" post) are good, because they let the users of this site conduct mutually-beneficial trade.
I disagree with Ben Pace in the sibling comment; advertisements should be top-level posts, because any other kind of post won't get many eyeballs on it. If users don't find the advertised proposition useful, if the post is deceptive or annoying, then they should simply downvote the ad.