Daniel and SDM, what do you think of a bet with 78:22 odds (roughly 4:1) based on the differences in your distributions, i.e: If AGI happens before 2030, SDM owes Daniel $78. If AGI doesn't happen before 2030, Daniel owes SDM $22.
This was calculated by:
The blue distribution labeled "Your distribution" in this snapshot is Alex's updated 2020 prediction.
I can help with this if you share the post with me!
Oh yeah that makes sense, I was slightly confused about the pod setup. The approach would've been different in that case (still would've estimated how many people in each pod were currently infected, but would've spent more time on the transmission rate for 30 feet outdoors). Curious what your current prediction for this is? (here is a blank distribution for the question if you want to use that)
Here’s my prediction for this! I predicted a median of March 1, 2029. Below are some of the data sources that informed my thinking.
Related Metaculus question: When will sales of a non-screen technology be greater than sales of a screen technology?
Here's my prediction, and here's a spreadsheet with more details (I predicted expected # of people who would get COVID). Some caveats/assumptions:
Either expected number of people who get covid or number of microcovids generated by the event works as a question! My instinctive sense is that # of people who get covid will be easier to quickly reason about, but I'll see as I'm forecasting it.
In a similar vein to this, I found several resources that make me think it should be higher than 1% currently and in the next 1.5 years:
If people don't have a strong sense of who these people are/would be, you can look through this google scholar citation list (this is just the top AI researchers, not AGI researchers).
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