This is a linkpost for a model and web tool (that I and several friends created) to quantitatively estimate the COVID risk to you from your ordinary daily activities:
This website contains three outputs of our work:
- a web calculator that you can use to calculate your COVID risk (in units of microCOVIDs, a 1-in-a-million chance of getting COVID).
- a white paper that explains our estimation method. EAs might be particularly interested in the footnotes throughout, and the detailed research sources section.
- a spreadsheet to compute your COVID risk in more detail and to track your risk over time. EAs might find this more customizable and powerful than the web calculator.
If you have different beliefs than us and would like to use a version of the model that reflects your beliefs rather than ours, you can make modifications to your copy of the spreadsheet, or fork the repository and make a personal copy of the web calculator. We also hope you will submit suggestions, either by emailing us or by making issues or pull requests directly on Github.
Our group house has been using this model as the basis of a shared agreement/protocol, based on a budget of 3,000 microCOVIDs per year to spend outside the house (about 58 per week). We know of another group house that (last we heard) was operating on *4* microCOVIDs per week!
We hope this helps you personally live a better pandemic life with more safety and more flexibility.
(also linkposted to the EA Forum)